Patriots vs Broncos predictions focus on early picks and odds for the AFC Championship Game, with Jason Logan’s early leans centered on the Under between a team featuring Jarrett Stidham on offense and one that couldn’t move the ball effectively in the Divisional Round.
The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots earned the top two seeds in the conference and were destined to clash in the AFC Championship. Drake Maye leads the Patriots this Sunday, but waiting at the top is not Bo Nix. The Broncos’ hopes of making it to Super Bowl LX rest with backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
These early Patriots vs Broncos predictions and NFL picks break down the betting movement around the AFC title game, reviewing the opening odds and early adjustments for the January 25 matchup.Patriots vs Broncos Match and Predictions given below.
Patriots vs Broncos predictions
Early lean
Spread prediction: Patriots -4.5 (-118)
Total prediction: Under 41.5 (-115)
These are early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game, with a full game preview coming later in the week.
Patriots vs Broncos Match and Predictions
Early Patriots vs Broncos spread pick: Patriots -4.5
-118 at FanDuel
The look-ahead line before Nix’s ankle injury at the end of the Divisional Round win over Buffalo had the Denver Broncos -1.5 against the New England Patriots. Once news broke that Nix was out, the spread adjusted to Patriots -4.5, which became the official opener Sunday night.
One-sided money on New England pushed the line as high as Patriots -6 at some online books, with mainstream markets moving to -5.5 overnight. Buyback on the Broncos Monday morning brought the spread back to New England -4.5.
The lean remains New England, but laying -118 at -4.5 is not appealing. This number sits near four, where favorites win but often fall short against the spread.
The key question is how much Nix is worth to the spread. Bookmakers adjusted roughly six points, from -1.5 to +4.5. The difference between Nix and Stidham may not drastically impact the passing game.
Denver runs a conservative pass offense, averaging 6.4 yards per attempt, ranking 29th, with low air yard metrics. The Broncos rely heavily on yards after the catch. Nix adds a rushing element when plays break down, something Stidham does not provide.
Injuries extend beyond Nix. Receivers Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin left Saturday’s game with concussion and hamstring injuries. With the passing game limited, the Broncos may lean on a modest rushing attack against a Patriots run defense that allowed only 87 and 48 rushing yards in two postseason games.
Early Patriots vs Broncos total pick: Under 41.5
-115 at FanDuel
The look-ahead total before Nix’s injury was 45.5 points. That number dropped to 40.5 before the weekend and opened Sunday night at the same mark. The total has since moved up to 41.5.
Expectations remain low for the Broncos offense due to injuries in the passing game and New England’s ability to stop the run. The Broncos defense is expected to deliver a strong effort from its top-tier unit.
New England scored 28 points against Houston, including a defensive touchdown and added possessions from five turnovers. Overall, the Patriots recorded just 13 first downs, averaged under four yards per play, and reached the red zone once.
The Patriots were 3-for-14 on third downs and now face a Broncos defense ranked Top 5 in third-down conversions allowed and touchdown rate inside the red zone.
Patriots vs Broncos odds
Patriots vs Broncos spread: Patriots -4.5
Patriots vs Broncos Moneyline : Broncos +200 | Patriots -240
Patriots vs Broncos Over/Under: 41.5
Also Read : Bo Nix Leads Broncos Past Bills After Bizarre Overtime Interception Ends Buffalo’s Season
